Page 1 of 15

Journal for Studies in Management and Planning

Available at http://internationaljournalofresearch.org/index.php/JSMaP

e-ISSN: 2395-0463

Volume 01 Issue 01

February 2015

Available online: http://internationaljournalofresearch.org/ P a g e | 66

Urban Planning Techniques for Climate

Change Adaptation

Purva Saxena

M.Plan, Student, Dept. Of Environmental Planning,

School Of Planning And Architecture, Bhopal, India,

Email: purvasaxena12@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

Climate change mitigation is action to

decrease the intensity of radiative

forcing in order to reduce the effects

of global warming. In contrast, adaptation

to global warming involves acting to

tolerate the effects of global

warming. Most often, climate change

mitigation scenarios involve reductions in

the concentrations of greenhouse gases,

either by reducing their sources or by

increasing their sinks.

Most means of mitigation appear effective

only for preventing further warming, not

at reversing existing warming. The Stern

Review identifies several ways of

mitigating climate change. These include

reducing demand for emissions-intensive

goods and services, increasing efficiency

gains, increasing use and development of

low-carbon technologies, and reducing

fossil fuel emissions.

The importance of change is illustrated by

the fact that world economic energy

efficiency is presently improving at only

half the rate of world economic growth.

Keywords: mitigation; climate change;

global; greenhouse gases; urban planning

Introduction

Global warming is here. A vast tract,

nearly a million square kilometres, of

central Siberia is thawing after more than

11,000 years since the last ice age. This

frozen landscape contains 70 billion tons

of methane gas under the permafrost that

might be released into the atmosphere

causing a release of a potent and earth

shattering amount of carbon dioxide

(Pierce, 2005). The world’s leading earth

and climate scientists are saying that, “the

harmful effects of global warming on daily

life are already showing up and within a

couple of decades hundreds of millions of

people will not have enough water... while

tens of millions of other people will be

flooded out of their homes from rising

temperatures and sea levels in other part of

the globe (Associated Press, 2007 based on

IPPC report). The impact on the world of

such a catastrophe was recounted in the

motion picture The Day After Tomorrow.

For a moment we need to think of the

scenarios depicted in this motion picture as

real and not a script made for Hollywood.

Nearly seventy percent of the world’s

population lives near areas where sea

levels are expected to rise dramatically and

inundate urban areas. Thus, urban planning

is at the forefront of the needs of basic

human existence as we face a new

challenge of matching the forces of nature

against the building systems of mankind.

Unfortunately, very few urban planning

tools are being considered in the re- deployment of resources in a climate

change era by national and local

policymakers. It is time to suggest a

research and policy paradigm to craft

better urban planning systems in response

to climate change.

Developing a new approach is hard due to

little research available on the impact of

rising tides, cyclones, high temperatures,

severe wind storms, fires and floods in

highly settled areas with mild climates.

Within the next few decades most people

in the world will be subject to climate

Page 2 of 15

Journal for Studies in Management and Planning

Available at http://internationaljournalofresearch.org/index.php/JSMaP

e-ISSN: 2395-0463

Volume 01 Issue 01

February 2015

Available online: http://internationaljournalofresearch.org/ P a g e | 67

change due to rapid and unprecedented

movement of people from rural to urban

environments. Since metropolitan areas are

densely settled and in low lying areas the

potential to move people from the coast is

very slim. Further, there is little urban

planning research that combines scientific

knowledge about climate change and its

likely effects on the planning and design of

cities or suburbs. An integrative research

framework is needed for developing new

and robust public policies, urban design

guidelines and implementation measures.

These approaches have to consider doing

what we can to replace the current urban

fabric since altering this pattern is too

expensive and perhaps more drastic than

needed.

We need to better understand climate

change issues by reviewing some of the

key literature and its impacts on urban

areas. From this understanding, we can

develop approaches for future planning

scholars interested in climatic change as it

applies to public policy

The Climate Change Debate

Climate change is now at the forefront of

debate with dire warnings that worldwide

temperatures may rise from 5-11oC. over

the next 50-100 years (Stainforth et al

2005). If these predictions are correct and

the current trend of a 3oC. rise in

temperature continues, the Greenland ice- sheet will melt faster and could be all but

eliminated except for residual glaciers in

mountainous areas of that land mass

(Gregory et al 2004). An occurrence such

as this could raise global average sea-level

by 6 metres which will require mega cities

such as London and New York to start

planning for the re-development of

vulnerable low lying areas . If these

changes do occur they are likely to create

extraordinary wind and wave conditions,

which are characteristic of climatic

transition, and provide a continued rise in

the atmospheric concentration of carbon

dioxide (CO2) largely because of

anthropogenic

emissions (Cox et al 2000; Rignot and

Thomas 2002). Other data by Cox (2000)

shows that regional variation in changes

will lead to marked drying, most likely

occurring in mid-USA and southern

Europe and significantly wetter conditions

in South Asia, with evidence of the

ecological impacts of recent climate

change from polar terrestrial to tropical

marine environments. Hughes’s (2003)

writing on climate change and its impact

on Australia’s ecological systems

concludes that the continental average

temperature is in the order of a 0.8oC

increase since 1910 and that this rise has

mostly taken place after 1950 (1998 being

the warmest year). More significantly,

however, Hughes raises as a major concern

the night time temperature increase and

concomitant decrease in the diurnal range.

Hughes suggests that by 2030 an average

of .07 - 4.8oC. will lead to “...continued

declines in rainfall with extreme events

such as fires, floods, droughts and tropical

storms” (Hughes 2005a). She also notes

that this is an especially vexing issue for

Australia because of its large nocturnal

animal population (Hughes 2003). This is

not the first time climatic changes have

impacted human settlement. Recent work

on Angor Wat in Cambodia showed that

the city was abandoned because its

intricate water management system failed

due to subtle changes in temperature that

reduced the water supply to unsustainable

levels (R. Fletcher, 2007). In addition,

Jeremy Diamond’s book Collapse ascribes

climate and water management crisis for

the demise of the ancient pre- Columbian

civilizations (Diamond, 2005).

Meanwhile, decreases in the diurnal

temperature range have been linked to

human health. There was a high death rate

during Europe’s heat wave in 2003.

Daytime temperatures in Paris rose to

40oC, which was further exacerbated by

night time temperatures at 25.5oC plus for

several nights. These temperature

exposures are possible in Australia where

air conditioning could fail in extreme

Page 3 of 15

Journal for Studies in Management and Planning

Available at http://internationaljournalofresearch.org/index.php/JSMaP

e-ISSN: 2395-0463

Volume 01 Issue 01

February 2015

Available online: http://internationaljournalofresearch.org/ P a g e | 68

events because of power surges. Many

cities across the world are going through

energy shortages as temperature soars with

homes built for mild climates unable to

cope even with insulation. Hansen

suggests with Climate Change that “any

increase in global temperatures beyond

1

oC could trigger runaway ice melting of

the world’s ice sheets” (Climate Change,

2007).CO2 emissions, a prime factor in

global warming, continue to soar.

What Can Be Done?

Faced with the consequences and costs of

inaction, governments have reached a

consensus internationally that global

emissions need to be cut significantly.

Countries are working towards an

international framework for

action, with the aim of reaching agreement

at the UN Climate Change Conference to

be held in Copenhagen in late 2009. The

OECD has simulated a number of possible

scenarios for ambitious reductions in GHG

emissions along with their economic and

environmental impacts compared with

those of the baseline scenario with no new

policy

action. Figure1. presents the time path of

GHG emissions associated with these

scenarios.

For illustrative purposes the economic

issues involved in designing a

comprehensive approach to reducing

emissions are explored here primarily by

examining one mitigation reference

scenario. This scenario eventually

stabilizes GHG concentrations at a level

equal to 550 parts per million(ppm) of CO2

(or about 450 ppm CO2 only), while

allowing a moderate overshooting of this

level over an interim period. It has to be

emphasized that this scenario has no

specific normative significance. Indeed,

many countries have taken the view that a

more ambitious objective would be

appropriate as would be required, for

instance, to cap the extent of global

warming at 2°Celsius. But for illustrative

purposes, this booklet focuses on one

scenario and uses this to examine

quantitatively how different policy

assumptions might affect overall results.

Major changes in behavior and production

methods will be needed to achieve GHG

mitigation at the lowest possible cost.

Mitigation is achieved by reducing both

the energy intensity of GDP and the

carbon intensity of energy used. As a side

effect of these changes, GDP growth will

also be affected. Under the mitigation

reference scenario examined here, it is

estimated that the average growth of the

world economy over the period 2008-2050

would be some 0.13 percentage points

lower than in the absence of climate

change policies. The impact on GDP

growth is small in the early years, but

increases significantly after 2025. By

2050, the level of world GDP is estimated

to be some 4.8% below what it would be

in the absence of climate change policies.

The reason for this GDP loss is that

substantial human and capital resources

will have to be shifted to working on GHG

mitigation, thus reducing the resources

available for producing other goods and

services. While abatement obviously

generates other benefits in terms of

avoided climate change damage, such

benefits are not always directly captured in

conventional GDP, and are not reflected

here.