Page 1 of 15
Journal for Studies in Management and Planning
Available at http://internationaljournalofresearch.org/index.php/JSMaP
e-ISSN: 2395-0463
Volume 01 Issue 01
February 2015
Available online: http://internationaljournalofresearch.org/ P a g e | 66
Urban Planning Techniques for Climate
Change Adaptation
Purva Saxena
M.Plan, Student, Dept. Of Environmental Planning,
School Of Planning And Architecture, Bhopal, India,
Email: purvasaxena12@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Climate change mitigation is action to
decrease the intensity of radiative
forcing in order to reduce the effects
of global warming. In contrast, adaptation
to global warming involves acting to
tolerate the effects of global
warming. Most often, climate change
mitigation scenarios involve reductions in
the concentrations of greenhouse gases,
either by reducing their sources or by
increasing their sinks.
Most means of mitigation appear effective
only for preventing further warming, not
at reversing existing warming. The Stern
Review identifies several ways of
mitigating climate change. These include
reducing demand for emissions-intensive
goods and services, increasing efficiency
gains, increasing use and development of
low-carbon technologies, and reducing
fossil fuel emissions.
The importance of change is illustrated by
the fact that world economic energy
efficiency is presently improving at only
half the rate of world economic growth.
Keywords: mitigation; climate change;
global; greenhouse gases; urban planning
Introduction
Global warming is here. A vast tract,
nearly a million square kilometres, of
central Siberia is thawing after more than
11,000 years since the last ice age. This
frozen landscape contains 70 billion tons
of methane gas under the permafrost that
might be released into the atmosphere
causing a release of a potent and earth
shattering amount of carbon dioxide
(Pierce, 2005). The world’s leading earth
and climate scientists are saying that, “the
harmful effects of global warming on daily
life are already showing up and within a
couple of decades hundreds of millions of
people will not have enough water... while
tens of millions of other people will be
flooded out of their homes from rising
temperatures and sea levels in other part of
the globe (Associated Press, 2007 based on
IPPC report). The impact on the world of
such a catastrophe was recounted in the
motion picture The Day After Tomorrow.
For a moment we need to think of the
scenarios depicted in this motion picture as
real and not a script made for Hollywood.
Nearly seventy percent of the world’s
population lives near areas where sea
levels are expected to rise dramatically and
inundate urban areas. Thus, urban planning
is at the forefront of the needs of basic
human existence as we face a new
challenge of matching the forces of nature
against the building systems of mankind.
Unfortunately, very few urban planning
tools are being considered in the re- deployment of resources in a climate
change era by national and local
policymakers. It is time to suggest a
research and policy paradigm to craft
better urban planning systems in response
to climate change.
Developing a new approach is hard due to
little research available on the impact of
rising tides, cyclones, high temperatures,
severe wind storms, fires and floods in
highly settled areas with mild climates.
Within the next few decades most people
in the world will be subject to climate
Page 2 of 15
Journal for Studies in Management and Planning
Available at http://internationaljournalofresearch.org/index.php/JSMaP
e-ISSN: 2395-0463
Volume 01 Issue 01
February 2015
Available online: http://internationaljournalofresearch.org/ P a g e | 67
change due to rapid and unprecedented
movement of people from rural to urban
environments. Since metropolitan areas are
densely settled and in low lying areas the
potential to move people from the coast is
very slim. Further, there is little urban
planning research that combines scientific
knowledge about climate change and its
likely effects on the planning and design of
cities or suburbs. An integrative research
framework is needed for developing new
and robust public policies, urban design
guidelines and implementation measures.
These approaches have to consider doing
what we can to replace the current urban
fabric since altering this pattern is too
expensive and perhaps more drastic than
needed.
We need to better understand climate
change issues by reviewing some of the
key literature and its impacts on urban
areas. From this understanding, we can
develop approaches for future planning
scholars interested in climatic change as it
applies to public policy
The Climate Change Debate
Climate change is now at the forefront of
debate with dire warnings that worldwide
temperatures may rise from 5-11oC. over
the next 50-100 years (Stainforth et al
2005). If these predictions are correct and
the current trend of a 3oC. rise in
temperature continues, the Greenland ice- sheet will melt faster and could be all but
eliminated except for residual glaciers in
mountainous areas of that land mass
(Gregory et al 2004). An occurrence such
as this could raise global average sea-level
by 6 metres which will require mega cities
such as London and New York to start
planning for the re-development of
vulnerable low lying areas . If these
changes do occur they are likely to create
extraordinary wind and wave conditions,
which are characteristic of climatic
transition, and provide a continued rise in
the atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide (CO2) largely because of
anthropogenic
emissions (Cox et al 2000; Rignot and
Thomas 2002). Other data by Cox (2000)
shows that regional variation in changes
will lead to marked drying, most likely
occurring in mid-USA and southern
Europe and significantly wetter conditions
in South Asia, with evidence of the
ecological impacts of recent climate
change from polar terrestrial to tropical
marine environments. Hughes’s (2003)
writing on climate change and its impact
on Australia’s ecological systems
concludes that the continental average
temperature is in the order of a 0.8oC
increase since 1910 and that this rise has
mostly taken place after 1950 (1998 being
the warmest year). More significantly,
however, Hughes raises as a major concern
the night time temperature increase and
concomitant decrease in the diurnal range.
Hughes suggests that by 2030 an average
of .07 - 4.8oC. will lead to “...continued
declines in rainfall with extreme events
such as fires, floods, droughts and tropical
storms” (Hughes 2005a). She also notes
that this is an especially vexing issue for
Australia because of its large nocturnal
animal population (Hughes 2003). This is
not the first time climatic changes have
impacted human settlement. Recent work
on Angor Wat in Cambodia showed that
the city was abandoned because its
intricate water management system failed
due to subtle changes in temperature that
reduced the water supply to unsustainable
levels (R. Fletcher, 2007). In addition,
Jeremy Diamond’s book Collapse ascribes
climate and water management crisis for
the demise of the ancient pre- Columbian
civilizations (Diamond, 2005).
Meanwhile, decreases in the diurnal
temperature range have been linked to
human health. There was a high death rate
during Europe’s heat wave in 2003.
Daytime temperatures in Paris rose to
40oC, which was further exacerbated by
night time temperatures at 25.5oC plus for
several nights. These temperature
exposures are possible in Australia where
air conditioning could fail in extreme
Page 3 of 15
Journal for Studies in Management and Planning
Available at http://internationaljournalofresearch.org/index.php/JSMaP
e-ISSN: 2395-0463
Volume 01 Issue 01
February 2015
Available online: http://internationaljournalofresearch.org/ P a g e | 68
events because of power surges. Many
cities across the world are going through
energy shortages as temperature soars with
homes built for mild climates unable to
cope even with insulation. Hansen
suggests with Climate Change that “any
increase in global temperatures beyond
1
oC could trigger runaway ice melting of
the world’s ice sheets” (Climate Change,
2007).CO2 emissions, a prime factor in
global warming, continue to soar.
What Can Be Done?
Faced with the consequences and costs of
inaction, governments have reached a
consensus internationally that global
emissions need to be cut significantly.
Countries are working towards an
international framework for
action, with the aim of reaching agreement
at the UN Climate Change Conference to
be held in Copenhagen in late 2009. The
OECD has simulated a number of possible
scenarios for ambitious reductions in GHG
emissions along with their economic and
environmental impacts compared with
those of the baseline scenario with no new
policy
action. Figure1. presents the time path of
GHG emissions associated with these
scenarios.
For illustrative purposes the economic
issues involved in designing a
comprehensive approach to reducing
emissions are explored here primarily by
examining one mitigation reference
scenario. This scenario eventually
stabilizes GHG concentrations at a level
equal to 550 parts per million(ppm) of CO2
(or about 450 ppm CO2 only), while
allowing a moderate overshooting of this
level over an interim period. It has to be
emphasized that this scenario has no
specific normative significance. Indeed,
many countries have taken the view that a
more ambitious objective would be
appropriate as would be required, for
instance, to cap the extent of global
warming at 2°Celsius. But for illustrative
purposes, this booklet focuses on one
scenario and uses this to examine
quantitatively how different policy
assumptions might affect overall results.
Major changes in behavior and production
methods will be needed to achieve GHG
mitigation at the lowest possible cost.
Mitigation is achieved by reducing both
the energy intensity of GDP and the
carbon intensity of energy used. As a side
effect of these changes, GDP growth will
also be affected. Under the mitigation
reference scenario examined here, it is
estimated that the average growth of the
world economy over the period 2008-2050
would be some 0.13 percentage points
lower than in the absence of climate
change policies. The impact on GDP
growth is small in the early years, but
increases significantly after 2025. By
2050, the level of world GDP is estimated
to be some 4.8% below what it would be
in the absence of climate change policies.
The reason for this GDP loss is that
substantial human and capital resources
will have to be shifted to working on GHG
mitigation, thus reducing the resources
available for producing other goods and
services. While abatement obviously
generates other benefits in terms of
avoided climate change damage, such
benefits are not always directly captured in
conventional GDP, and are not reflected
here.
